Australian Dollar's Plunge
As we have seen car insurance cheap commodity markets fall, we have been forced to ask the question, "Is this the end of the commodity bull market or, one more decline in a multi-year trend?" The opposing forces of global inflation and waning demand have led to a considerable state of flux. Over the last couple of weeks, we have seen very wide ranges and declining open interest in several commodity sectors. We believe that it would be too easy for this run to come to an end in such an orderly fashion. Adding to the confusion, many of the markets continue to hold their weekly trend lines while others have penetrated their trends even within the same sectors.
Given the mass confusion, it insurance quotes auto be easier to create a long position in a commodity based currency, rather than looking at each market individually. The Australian Dollar is our favorite of the commodity based currencies due to the broad base of commodities they provide to the world's markets. Going back to last week's idea, we have seen the Australian Dollar penetrate its weekly trend on declining open interest.
Over the last three weeks we have seen open interest decline by almost 25%. This indicates a market that is unsure of its future direction. If this were the initiation of a new downward trend, we would expect open interest to remain steady to higher, as each washed out long position would be replaced with new short position of equal or greater size.
Therefore, it may be time to act on last week's idea. Place an order to buy the Australian Dollar at .9110 on a stop. This will force the market to begin to turn around and show some upward momentum before we get in. If the buy stop is filled, place a protective stop around .9048. Using the statistical analysis generated, we can expect the market to trade within boundary of .8929 and .9267 with a high probability over the coming two to three weeks. This is also provides option traders with the two essential factors for a successful trade - a price and time target. Please call for option details. 866-990-0777
Andy Waldock
www.commodityandderivativeadv.comhttp://www.commodityandderivativeadv.com
866-990-0777
